Free tool · acquisition headroom

How hard can you push your nCPA?

Most brands set their acquisition ceiling on the first order, then wonder why growth stalls. Your ceiling is really set by the cohort curve — what a customer is worth by month three, six, twelve — and by how long you are willing to fund the gap. Move the window and watch the ceiling move with it.

Cohort contributionAffordable nCPAPayback monthRevenue unlocked
Work out your ceiling

Your cohort curve, and what it lets you bid.

Six inputs from your P&L and your cohort report. Built around direct-to-consumer cohorts — if you also sell wholesale or in store, use your direct channel here and talk to us about blending the rest. Nothing is stored, and there is no form to fill in.

Your numbers

Pre-filled with the same example brand as our cash-cycle tool — roughly £2.5m of revenue at 55% margin. Type over any figure with your own.

Excluding VAT and shipping income.
£
55%
Revenue less landed product and shipping costs — before marketing.
10%50%90%
Your nCPA: ad spend divided by new customers. Just the ad platforms — the rest goes in the next box.
£
Everything the ad platforms never count in your nCPA: agency and freelance fees, creative production, tools, in-house marketing salaries, retention and CRM spend, affiliate and influencer fees.
£
First-time buyers you win in a typical month at today’s spend.
#
1.80
1.00 means nobody ever comes back. 2.00 means the average customer buys twice. If you are not sure, your cohort or repeat-rate report will have it.
1.002.504.00
+10% cost per 10% more customers
Every extra customer costs a little more than the last. This sets how quickly that bites. Leave it at 10% if you have never measured it.
+4% easy to scale+30% hard to scale
How do I know my number?

Compare two periods of your own data: the percentage change in new customers against the percentage change in nCPA. If customers rose 20% while nCPA rose 15%, that is roughly 7.5% per 10% — set the slider to 7 or 8.

It matters because it decides how much extra volume your headroom actually buys:

  • +10% — one for one. Afford 36% more, buy 36% more customers.
  • +4% — cheap to scale. That same 36% buys well over double the volume.
  • +30% — hard to scale. The same 36% buys barely a tenth more.

If you have never measured it, leave it at 10%. It is the honest middle, and it is the number we would challenge first in a working session.

What you can afford to bid
£49

True CAC today £52
LTV : CAC 1.2 : 1 Tight 12-month contribution per customer against true CAC.
Payback month 5
Cumulative contribution per customer

Your cohorts today With better retention True CAC today
See the monthly numbers
MonthOrdersPer customerIf improved
month 6
Drag along the cohort. The further you are willing to fund, the more you can afford to bid.
month 1month 6month 12
+15% orders per customer
A subscription, replenishment prompts, or a second product they actually want.
as is+30%+60%
+£245.2k a year of extra revenue from pushing nCPA to the ceiling
+£858k on top of that, from the better cohorts

Send me the three fastest ways to buy this headroom

Opens an email to Nick and Karl with your figures already in it. Straight to a partner, and we reply personally.

How to read it

Three things this changes on Monday morning.

The ceiling is not a market fact. It is a decision about how long you fund the gap, and how good your cohorts are while you wait.

Your ceiling is a choice

First-order payback is the tightest possible rule, and it hands the auction to whoever is willing to wait one month longer than you. Pick the payback month deliberately, fund it deliberately, and write it into the media plan.

Retention is acquisition budget

Every extra order per customer lands straight on the ceiling. That is why a retention win is not a nice-to-have — it is permission to outbid people who sell the same thing you do.

nCPA is not your CAC

Agency fees, creative, tools, salaries and retention spend never appear in the platform’s number. Load them in and the ceiling you are really bidding against moves — usually by more than founders expect.

Cash decides whether you can

A longer payback window is a working capital position, not just a spreadsheet setting. The gap has to be funded from cash, margin or a facility — which is the conversation we usually end up having.